Issue 25149 Soccer Win-Loss Lottery: Bilbao worried, Real Madrid confident, Liverpool concerned, Shenhua proud

1 Shenhua -- Seoul

I have always been quite biased against CSL teams, but the home side still values pride playing at home. It’s not due to great strength but because they know poor home results will bring harsh criticism, so their home performances are generally solid.

The visitors have been out of the AFC Champions League for a while, and now that they are back, their strength has improved. However, judging from their overall away record, their away strength is not particularly impressive.

The data does not show a clear bias but slightly favors the home team. Perhaps the home side can really show some grit in this match.

Draw first, then home win

2 Bilbao -- Qarabağ

The home team’s strength far exceeds that of the visitors. Their league performance is average with fluctuating form. They lost both European matches, 0-2 to Arsenal and 1-4 to Dortmund, showing some gap at the European level, with goal difference 1/6.

The visitors are quite weak but surprisingly won both European matches, beating strong Benfica 3-2 away and easily defeating Copenhagen 2-0 at home. In terms of strength, they are clearly above the visitors. It seems they might be the dark horse of the Champions League. One upset might be accidental, but two indicates that this team is often underestimated.

The data heavily supports the home team, but this doesn’t fully reflect the visitors' performance, and the home defense is not very solid, so unexpected outcomes are possible.

Home win first, away win second

3 Galatasaray -- Bodø/Glimt

The home team is the best in their league with significantly stronger strength than the visitors. In two European matches, they have one win and one loss: a 1-5 away loss to Frankfurt and a 1-0 home win over Liverpool, showing their home ground is quite formidable.

The visitors drew both European matches: 2-2 away against Prague and 2-2 at home versus Tottenham. Overall, this team still relies heavily on home advantage and has yet to face strong teams away. Their unstable defense is a weakness.

The data supports the home team strongly, which aligns with their superior strength and home advantage.

Home win

4 Atalanta -- Slavia Prague

Although the home team ranks eighth in the league, few teams can beat them overall. In European matches, they have one win and one loss: a 0-4 away defeat to PSG and a 2-1 home victory against Brugge. Despite a weak defense, they can still compete against weaker teams.

The visitors fit this description, not very strong. Although they are dominant domestically, their European record shows a draw and a loss: 2-2 at home against Bodø and 0-3 away loss to Inter Milan.

The data gives very strong support to the home team, which may be somewhat excessive based on their overall form, so caution is advised.

Home win first, then draw

5 Bayern Munich -- Club Brugge

Since Diaz joined and the defense gave up Kim Min-jae, the home team has shown extremely strong offense and defense, as seen in their recent derby against Dortmund.

The data also absolutely supports the home team, especially playing at home.

Home win

6 Chelsea -- Ajax

The home team ranks fifth in the league with decent overall form and solid recent home performances, beating Liverpool and Nottingham. In Europe, they have one win and one loss: a 1-3 away loss to Bayern and a hard-fought 1-0 home win over Benfica.

The visitors are fourth in their league but show poor away ability, mostly drawing away. They lost both European matches: 0-2 to Inter and 0-4 to Marseille, failing to score in Europe, indicating insufficient strength at this level.

The data strongly supports the home team. Although the gap should not be so large, the visitors do lack European level strength. If the home team performs normally, there should be no problem.

Home win

7 Frankfurt -- Liverpool

The home team is seventh in the league but has dropped form recently, especially defensively. They have one win and one loss in Europe: a 5-1 home win over Galatasaray and a 1-5 away loss to Atletico, showing big swings and unclear self-assessment.

The visitors have also struggled lately, losing their league lead and appearing unstable. They have three consecutive league losses and one win and one loss in Europe: a 3-2 home win over Atletico conceding two goals and a surprising 0-1 away loss to Galatasaray. Even fielding their main squad against Manchester United, they still lost, with opponents often counterattacking effectively and creating many chances.

The data supports the visitors but not strongly. Given their current form, this support is generous. Hopefully, the visitors can rally in this match.

Away win first, then draw

8 Monaco -- Tottenham

The home team ranks seventh in Ligue 1 with mediocre performance but decent home form. In Europe, they have one draw and one loss: a 1-4 away loss to Club Brugge and a 2-2 home draw with Manchester City.

The visitors are sixth in their league but tend to falter at key moments, such as recently losing 1-2 after leading against Aston Villa. In Europe, they have one win and one draw: a 1-0 home win over Villarreal and a 2-2 away draw with Bodø.

The data is neutral but slightly favors the visitors, although Tottenham’s form is not very convincing.

Away win first, then home win

9 Real Madrid -- Juventus

The home team leads their league this season with two consecutive European wins: 2-1 at home over Marseille and 5-0 away at Almaty.

The visitors rank seventh in their league with average performance. In Europe, they have drawn both matches: 4-4 at home against Dortmund and 2-2 away at Villarreal. Their defense is problematic, but their attack is quite good.

The data strongly supports the home team based on strength and better defense. Another win is expected.

Home win

10 Lisbon -- Marseille

The home team is second in their league with decent form but has drawn two recent matches, showing some decline. In Europe, they have one win and one loss: a 4-1 home win over Alassan and a 1-2 away loss to Napoli.

The visitors top their league, surprisingly pushing PSG down. They have one win and one loss in Europe: a narrow 1-2 away loss to Real Madrid and a 4-0 home win over Ajax, showing strong attack.

The data slightly favors the home team, but given the visitors’ current form, this support may be excessive.

Draw first, then away win

11 Swansea -- Rangers

The home team ranks thirteenth with recent form of 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses in six matches. At home, they have no wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 8, showing mediocre defense. In the last five home games, they have 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss with 6 goals for and 7 against.

The visitors rank eleventh with recent form of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in six matches. Away, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and no losses, scoring 8 and conceding 5, performing quite well overall, especially defensively. In their last five away games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last three are unbeaten with 9 goals for and 11 against. Although they conceded many goals, 7 came in a match against the top team. Ignoring that, their defense is decent.

The data supports the home team significantly, considering rankings and home-away records, suggesting the visitors are somewhat underestimated.

Home win first, then away win

12 Watford -- Scunthorpe

The home team ranks fifteenth with recent form of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in six matches. At home, they have 2 wins, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their attack and defense are not particularly strong. In five home games, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with 8 goals for and 6 against, showing some home strength.

The visitors rank fifth with recent form of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in six matches. Away, they have 1 win, no draws, and 2 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their recent form is similar to the home team. In five away games, they have 3 wins and 2 losses. Their two losses were against Middlesbrough and Millwall, both top-six teams, but they are stable against mid-to-lower teams, with 6 goals for and 7 against.

The data is neutral, but the home team has a strong psychological advantage from many years of encounters, which could be an important factor.

Draw

13 Rotherham -- Oxford United

The home team ranks eighteenth with recent form of 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses in six matches. At home, they have no wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 9. They narrowly lost 1-0 away to third-ranked Stoke recently, showing stable performance. In five home games, they have no wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with 7 goals for and 10 against. Their home strength is average, with three draws against lower-ranked teams.

The visitors rank nineteenth with recent form of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in six matches. Away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their defense is stronger than the home team’s. In five away games, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses with 6 goals for and 7 against. With similar attacking ability, defense will be decisive. Their win and draw came against strong opponents, showing some quality but inconsistency.

The data supports the home team strongly, which may be somewhat inflated given the overall form and home-away abilities, as the visitors are actually stronger.

Draw first, then away win

14 Helsingborg -- Seinäjoki

The home team ranks fifth with recent form of 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses. At home, they have no wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring and conceding 12 goals each. Their attack and defense are both notable, but they have gone five matches without a win, showing some inconsistency. In six home games, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses with 21 goals for and 13 against. Their style is aggressive, with mutual damage often occurring.

The visitors rank fourth with recent form of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Away, they have 1 win, no draws, and 1 loss, scoring 14 and conceding 12 goals. Their attack and defense are similar to the home team. In six away games, they have 4 wins and 2 losses with 16 goals for and 13 against. Their two losses were against the top two teams. Comparing goal stats, the home team’s attack is slightly stronger, but defenses are about equal.

The data supports the home team well, but the visitors are more stable. Therefore, the home team’s volatile style may not guarantee an advantage.

Home win first, then away win