The Premier League has just started, but when Liverpool and Arsenal meet this weekend, they are not only aiming for three points but also to prove who is the leading candidate for the title this season.
No team can clinch the championship in September, but how they begin a major match can offer clues about how their season will ultimately unfold.
Evenly Matched
When the defending champions face the previous season’s runners-up, it is always a match neither side wants to lose. In the past eight seasons, Premier League winners have typically dropped just around 20 points throughout their title-winning campaigns.
Therefore, both Mikel Arteta and Arne Slot aim to safeguard every possible point, because if Arsenal is expected to win this season, Liverpool knows there are no easy games in maintaining their Premier League crown.
Especially after their intense matches against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Newcastle. It’s surprising for a team that conceded only 0.38 goals per game last season to now be conceding an average of 2 goals every 90 minutes after three official matches this season.
Yet beyond the long-term title race, this encounter can be seen as a definition of how each team has developed their playing quality and the contrasting philosophies between control and explosiveness, and the values these bring.
Statistics show that the expected goals (xG) in the last six games between these two teams have reached a rare balance and gradually increased over time, from 0.99 (Liverpool) – 0.78 (Arsenal) to 1.02-1.04, peaking at 2.45-2.42 in the 2-2 draw last May.
On average, each match between the two teams features over 100 dangerous attacking moves towards each other’s goal. For example, in last season’s first leg, The Gunners had 61 dangerous attacks, while Liverpool had 55. In the return leg, the English champions were outnumbered in this aspect (38 compared to 67).
Regarding chances created, each team averages 11 per game, evenly split, with big chances also balanced at 3-3. Liverpool’s shots on target usually remain steady at 5 per 90 minutes, while Arsenal’s improved from 3 to 7 shots on target in last season’s return match. This balance in efficiency is the essence of this rivalry.
The Liverpool vs Arsenal clash has established a new football benchmark.
A Battle of Two Philosophies
Arsenal has shown progress each season under Arteta. From a youthful, inconsistent side, the London club has transformed into a controlling machine that forces opponents to follow their tempo and performs effectively in matches against the "Big Six".
Data confirms this. Last season, in 10 matches against major rivals, The Gunners earned 20 points from 5 wins and 5 draws, more than any other team. In two games this season, they completed more passes than the champions (466 vs. 383, 447 vs. 355) with an accuracy rate ranging from 83–86%. Their solid ball circulation helps Arsenal maintain constant pressure on the opposition defense.
Mikel Arteta’s team tends to create more situations pressing near the goal, maintaining relentless pressure. This not only helps them control the game’s rhythm but also forces Liverpool’s defense to stay alert in recent encounters.
However, while Arsenal generates more dangerous attacks through superior control, The Kop shows a different quality: explosive bursts from limited chances and an ability to capitalize on direct attacks.
In the latest match, with 38 dangerous attacks, Salah and teammates produced an expected goals figure of 2.45, comparable to Arsenal’s, despite having half as many attacking moves. This directness keeps Arne Slot’s side dangerous even without full control of the game.
Looking at trends, the London team is gradually gaining the upper hand in each meeting with Liverpool. They control the game better, create more danger, and have learned to survive at Anfield. This growth is making The Gunners more like a champion team.
Yet Liverpool still excels in directness and the ability to decide the match outcome. Especially in big games, Salah’s talent and the freshness brought by newcomers like Ekitike and Florian Wirtz can create decisive moments.
Thien Y
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