Not to sound like hindsight bias, but when everyone saw Serbia as a strong contender before EuroBasket, I was not optimistic at all. This was my remark on August 23, before the tournament kicked off, and it proved true.

The main reason for my doubts was Serbia’s absence of a Murray-style ball-handling guard, which hindered effective pick-and-roll cooperation with Jokić. Their perimeter shooting has also declined, with veteran players losing form, especially after Bogdan withdrew due to injury, leaving their outside shooting even more strained.

In the 2022 EuroBasket, Serbia was upset by Italy and missed the quarterfinals; in the early hours today, Serbia was again eliminated in the round of 16 by Finland. Both matches shared a similarity: Serbia was overwhelmed by opponents’ three-point shooting.

Finland overall shot 15 for 42 from beyond the arc, a 35.7% three-point percentage, which is respectable. However, excluding Markkanen’s 1-for-9 shooting, the rest of the Finnish team hit 42.4% from three. Despite Markkanen’s poor three-point shooting today, he still scored 29 points with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals, proving he can produce points and contribute in other ways without relying on threes.

Looking at the stats, Jokić had another intense day, playing 33 minutes with 9 of 13 shooting, 1 of 2 from three, and 14 of 19 free throws, finishing with 33 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block.

Across six EuroBasket games, Jokić averaged 22.3 points, 9 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game, shooting 66.2% from the field, 33.3% from three, and 83.3% from the free-throw line. His averages would be even better if he hadn’t eased up during the group stage.

But fans who watch Jokić regularly understand that such high scoring with low assists indicates discomfort on the court. Without a Murray-like guard and even lacking an inside finisher like Gordon, Serbia’s ball movement ends up forcing Jokić to solve problems on his own.

This makes Finland’s defense simpler: they double-team Jokić when he posts up, foul him if they can’t stop him inside, forcing him to the free-throw line and disrupting his rhythm. Jokić’s foul trouble eventually exploded in the final quarter.

The last quarter was basically Finland’s “target Jokić” lesson. Finland scored 24 points in the fourth, 16 of which came from shots directly over Jokić. They used shooters to challenge him—if he didn’t step out, they shot threes; if he did, he tried to drive, but with four fouls, he dared not make aggressive moves.

Keeping Jokić on the perimeter also allowed Finland to dominate offensive rebounds, grabbing 20 second-chance opportunities. After the game, Jokić admitted, “Letting Finland get 20 offensive rebounds is absolutely unacceptable.”

With two minutes left in the fourth, Finland’s Valtonen inbounded from the baseline, and Jokić was late to defend, leaving a gap for Valtonen to hit a three. With one minute remaining, Valtonen nailed a step-back three right over Jokić, sealing the game.

As the team’s star, exiting the game this way at the crucial moment is definitely disappointing. But fundamentally, Serbia and the Nuggets are two completely different teams. The Nuggets’ system is built around Jokić’s style, while Serbia’s coach clearly prefers a guard-driven offense.

This coaching approach isn’t necessarily wrong; at the 2023 World Cup, Serbia reached the final without Jokić, achieving their best recent result. Bogdan played like Jordan in that tournament, and Serbia’s ball movement was excellent.

However, in this EuroBasket group stage, Bogdan’s injury was a huge blow for Serbia. Without their tactical core, they had to rely heavily on Jokić, but others weren’t familiar with playing alongside him, resulting in Serbia’s early exit again.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Jokić never wins a championship with the national team, since NBA and FIBA basketball styles are fundamentally different. Schröder and Jokić might not be comparable in the NBA, but within FIBA’s system, Schröder could actually be more effective than Jokić.