On September 5th Beijing time, reporter Siegel reported that the NBA training camp is about to open. Although the restricted free agent market is still progressing slowly, with Kuminga, Giddey, and Grimes yet to sign contracts, the first domino has officially fallen as Cam Thomas decided to accept a one-year $6 million qualifying offer from the Nets.

Kuminga, Giddey, and Grimes remain stuck in a complicated contract deadlock, with less than four weeks left to decide whether to follow Thomas’s lead and accept the qualifying offer.

Among these three players, Kuminga is considered the most likely to take this step.

Kuminga: Very likely to accept the qualifying offer

The Warriors have consistently taken a defiant stance regarding Kuminga’s potential acceptance of the $7.9 million qualifying offer.

Whether refusing to trade him via sign-and-trade or offering him a high-paying short-term contract, the Warriors have remained confident throughout this offseason about their negotiation position with this restricted free agent.

However, the current situation gives Warriors fans and Kuminga’s supporters every reason to worry about how the talks will unfold—this offseason, as a restricted free agent, Kuminga has effectively been “restricted” by the Warriors.

Although both sides agreed this summer to explore the possibility of a sign-and-trade, no trade proposals meeting the Warriors’ valuation have emerged. Moreover, owner Joe Lacob, GM Mike Dunleavy Jr., and the management have made it clear they will not be “forced” into a deal.

Sources say that if a trade could bring the Warriors draft compensation and a promising replacement for Kuminga, they would be willing to proceed. The problem is that despite strong interest from the Kings and Suns, no such trade offers have been presented to the Warriors.

Additionally, unless the Warriors are willing to offer Kuminga a long-term contract worth $25 to $30 million annually this offseason, he and his team have already set their sights on the 2026 free agent market—when multiple teams will have sufficient salary cap space to pursue this athletically gifted forward.

Sources indicate that unless the Warriors change their stance within the next week, Kuminga is prepared to end negotiations and accept the qualifying offer.

Bulls: Optimistic about negotiations with Giddey

During last offseason, when the Bulls acquired Giddey in the Caruso trade, they viewed the Australian guard as one of the team's future core pieces. In his one season with Chicago, Giddey proved to be the versatile player needed to accelerate the rebuild.

Because of this, sources reveal that the Bulls never considered pursuing a sign-and-trade involving Giddey this offseason—they have neither initiated such plans nor discussed trading him with any other team.

Throughout the summer, the Bulls have remained confident they can secure a long-term deal with the 22-year-old. Giddey clearly wants to stay, and the Bulls cannot afford to lose him at this stage.

However, the Bulls’ need for Giddey clearly outweighs his need for the Bulls—this is why Giddey holds some leverage in these restricted free agent negotiations and has persisted until now.

Although the Bulls initially insisted on an offer of about $20 million per year, they have recently increased the contract amount to break the deadlock.According to league sources, the Bulls have presented Giddey and his representatives with a four-year contract worth between $85 and $90 million.

This is likely the Bulls’ final offer this offseason, as it essentially represents a compromise between both sides’ demands: the Bulls initially wanted to retain Giddey around $20 million annually, while Giddey hopes for a contract closer to $30 million per year.

Although the Bulls expected to have reached an agreement by now, they remain confident that Giddey will not repeat the path of Kuminga and Thomas by accepting the qualifying offer.

That said, if Giddey remains unsatisfied with this new offer, the $11.1 million qualifying offer will be his only other option.

76ers’ financial dilemma: Grimes’ contract challenge

Similar to the Bulls’ approach with Giddey, 76ers fans need not worry about Grimes missing the 2025-26 roster.

Grimes will occupy the 76ers’ 14th roster spot and reaffirm his role as a key offensive contributor. The only question is whether he will accept the qualifying offer or reach a new contract agreement with the team.

The core issue preventing the 76ers from signing Grimes to a long-term deal lies in the team’s financial constraints.

For the 2025-26 season, the 76ers already have 13 players under contract, with their salary just touching the luxury tax threshold—only about $10 million shy of the first tax apron.

If they sign Grimes to any long-term contract, the 76ers would immediately surpass the first luxury tax apron and might become a “second apron team” this season. If that were acceptable to the 76ers, a new deal would have been reached by now.

Looking at Grimes’ demands: like other restricted free agents, he hopes for a contract exceeding his current value to the team—he expects a salary above $20 million per year, whereas the 76ers are reluctant to offer more than $15 million annually (as exceeding that would push them beyond the second luxury tax apron).

If both sides ultimately agree on a new contract and Grimes does not accept the qualifying offer, the 76ers will become a “tax apron team” in 2025-26; Grimes’ qualifying offer stands at $8.7 million, and if he accepts it, the 76ers’ payroll with 14 contracted players will remain just below the first luxury tax apron for the new season.